Mapping the UK Business Landscape and Growth Predictions

Trading services were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared to December 2025, excluding any seasonal trading. Data are plotted in the middle of the period of each wave. Almost a 3rd (31%) of trading businesses reported that their turnover had reduced in January 2026 compared to the previous month.

The motions are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by small falls in January. The markets with the highest percentage reporting that turnover reduced in January 2026 were: the accommodation and food service activities market (52%, which is a 21 portion point rise from December 2025) the other services industry (45%) the arts, home entertainment and entertainment industry (40%) Around 16% of trading services reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 percentage point increase compared with December 2025.

For trading organizations with 10 or more staff members, 33% reported that their turnover had reduced, which was broadly stable compared to December and January 2025. More than one in five (23%) businesses reported that their turnover had increased, up 2 portion points compared to December 2025. Generally, the proportion of services reporting that their turnover increased correlated to the size of business.

The exception to this was the proportion for companies with 250 or more staff members, which was 25%, and 5 percentage points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading businesses were asked how they anticipate their turnover to change in the coming month. This can then be used to forecast how the company's turnover will actually alter once that calendar month concludes.

Reviewing Global Trade Reports for British Firms

Although trends in between expected turnover and real turnover have actually broadly moved in the very same direction, the movements for expectations tend to be bigger. For presentational functions, some action alternatives have been gotten rid of. Information are plotted in the middle of the period of each wave. Caution ought to be taken when analyzing expectations concerns, as the workers responding on behalf of companies might not have full oversight of all of their business's future expectations.

ANSR July UK PRs

More than one in 5 (21%) trading companies anticipate their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 portion point rise from February 2026 however was broadly stable compared to expectations for March 2025 (22%). The percentage of trading services anticipating an increase in January 2026 was 13%, while the percentage that reported a real increase in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, recommending a minor pessimism in organizations expectations.

The patterns have actually broadly followed each other considering that the questions were introduced in April 2022. The results for March 2026 follow the pattern from previous years, with the percentage of companies anticipating turnover to increase peaking after a decrease in January. Bigger organizations were most likely to anticipate a boost in turnover in March, with the percentage varying from 20% for organizations with 0 to 9 staff members, to 42% for businesses with 100 to 249 staff members.

For presentational purposes, some response choices have been removed. Information are outlined in the middle of the period of each wave.

The 2026 UK Economic Landscape and Growth Predictions

The proportion of trading organizations that expected a reduction in January 2026 was 25%, while the proportion that reported an actual reduction in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The percentage of businesses expecting turnover to decrease for a particular month ahead of time has actually remained significantly lower than the proportion of services reporting a real decline in that month since April 2022.

Expectations for turnover to decrease have consistently followed the exact same trend, as actual reported turnover decreases throughout this time. Trading services were asked what challenges, if any, were affecting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading businesses reported that financial uncertainty was having an impact on their turnover, which was broadly stable with early January 2026.

This is broadly steady compared to early January 2026 and 2 percentage points down compared to a year back. For trading services with 10 or more employees, cost of labour was the most frequently reported challenge, at 36%. This was broadly stable compared with early January 2026. Companies with 10 to 49 workers were more likely to report cost of labour as a difficulty than businesses with 250 or more staff members (37%, compared to 20%). One in 5 (20%) trading companies with 10 or more staff members indicated that they were not currently experiencing any turnover obstacles in early February 2026. Further information on monetary performance, consisting of all reaction options categorised by industry and size band, are available in our accompanying dataset.